The big decision: tank Vs. tankless gas water heater

Note: Typically, condensing tankless gas water heaters have two heat exchangers, and non-condensing models only have one.
The extra heat exchanger in condensing tankless gas water heaters uses heat from the exhaust gas to preheat the inflowing cold water. This means condensing tankless gas water heaters are more energy efficient, and have cooler exhaust gas to vent.
Source: Navien – 

Also, Condensing tankless gas water heaters require an electrical connection and proper disposition of acidic condensate.

Which size Gas tank do I need?

  • Family of 1 to 2: 30 gallons
  • Family of 2 to 4: 40 gallons
  • Family of 5 or More: 50 gallons

Source: https://www.lowes.com/n/buying-guide/water-heater-buying-guide

Natural or Propane gas tank or tankless water heater cost including Professional installation - The big picture

Standard Gas Water Heater
~$2,000 to $3,000 product + installation by licensed plumber 
Local Utility rebates on ENERGY STAR® certified models up to $700
Federal tax credit up to $600 on product + professional installation net of local Utility rebates. Ask for an ENERGY STAR® certified model.
Natural gas operating cost ~$300/year
Propane gas operating cost ~$500/year
Tankless Gas Water Heater
~$4,000 to $6,000 product + installation by licensed plumber 
Local Utility rebates on ENERGY STAR® certified models up to $1,500
Federal tax credit up to $600 on product + professional installation net of local Utility rebates. Ask for an ENERGY STAR® certified model.
Natural gas operating cost ~$240/year
Propane gas operating cost ~$500/year

Gas tank water heater cost at retail - The big picture

Standard Atmospheric Vent 

Most common. Exhaust gasses vented vertically to exit the home.

Natural gas: ~$500 to $1,300 to purchase at Lowe’s® or THe Home Depot®.
Propane gas: ~$700 to $1,300 to purchase at Lowe’s® or The Home Depot®.
Natural gas Operating cost ~$300/year
Propane gas Operating cost ~$500/year
Power Vent 

An electric blower pushes the exhaust gasses vertically or horizontally. Lower exhaust temperatures allow for PVC piping.

~$1,100 to $1,500 to purchase at Lowe’s® or The Home Depot®.
Natural Gas Operating cost ~$300/year
Propane Gas Operating cost ~$600/year
Direct Vent 

Draws air for combustion outside the home rather than inside. Exhaust gasses vented back outdoors.

~$900 to $1,200 to purchase at Lowe’s® or The Home Depot®.
Natural Gas Operating cost ~$250/year
Power Direct Vent 

An electric blower draws air for combustion outside the home rather than inside. Exhaust gasses vented back outdoors. PVC piping allowed.

~$1,100 to $1,600 to purchase at Lowe’s®.
Natural Gas Operating cost ~$250/year

Source – A. O. Smith: https://www.hotwater.com/info-center/water-heater-venting.html

Local Utility rebates on ENERGY STAR® certified models up to $700. Check the “Resources” section below.
Federal tax credit up to $600 on product + professional installation net of local Utility rebates. Look for an ENERGY STAR® certified model. Details here.

Note: The Home Depot® installs water heaters that you have already purchased (you can request installation from one of their Pro Referral professionals) but Lowe’s® does not and requires that you purchase both the water heater and the installation service together as a package. Other installation options are to contact a local plumber, handyman or self-install, following the safety precautions detailed in the product’s Use & Care manual, the local codes and regulations.

tankless gas water heater cost at retail - the big picture

Non Condensing Tankless Gas Indoor or Outdoor
Natural gas or Propane gas: 120,000 to 199,000 BTUs ~$600 to $1,200 to purchase at Lowe’s® or The Home Depot® (before any available local Utility market incentives).
Natural gas Operating cost ~$240/year
Propane gas Operating cost ~$500/year
Condensing Tankless Gas Indoor or Outdoor
Natural gas or Propane gas: 130,000 to 199,000 BTUs ~$1,150 to $2,750 to purchase at Lowe’s® or The Home Depot® 
Local Utility rebates on ENERGY STAR® certified models up to $1,500
Federal tax credit up to $600 on product + professional installation net of local Utility rebates. Look for an ENERGY STAR® certified model.
Natural gas Operating cost ~$220/year
Propane gas Operating cost ~$450/year

Note: The Home Depot® installs water heaters that you have already purchased (you can request installation from one of their Pro Referral professionals) but Lowe’s® does not and requires that you purchase both the water heater and the installation service together as a package. Other installation options are to contact a local plumber, handyman or self-install, following the safety precautions detailed in the product’s Use & Care manual, the local codes and regulations.

Resources: Basic principles to properly size a tankless gas water heater - consult with a plumbing professional

Resources: Utility rebates and federal tax credit for ENERGY STAR certified gas water heaters

Zip code enabled Utility rebate finders (search for “gas water heaters” top left and input your zip code top right):

Lowe’s®: https://www.lowes.com/l/help/available-rebates
The Home Depot®: https://www.homedepot.com/rebate-center/index.html
A. O. Smith®: https://www.hotwater.com/water-heater-rebates.html
Rheem®: https://www.rheem.com/rebate-center/?ecr_rebateConsumerTypes=residential&zip=33909
Bradford White®: https://forthepro.bradfordwhite.com/product-rebates-tax-credits/?_gl=1*1bjcm4s*_gcl_au*NzMwNTM2OTk2LjE3NDA1MzM5OTE.*_ga*MTU3MTExMTUyNy4xNzQwNTMzOTkx*_ga_T9DHK449DL*MTc0MjQ3OTQwNy4yLjAuMTc0MjQ3OTQwNy4wLjAuMA..*_ga_3YBBS21NYQ*MTc0MjQ3OTQwNy4xLjAuMTc0MjQ3OTQwNy4wLjAuMA..

Federal tax credits for ENERGY STAR® certified Gas Water Heaters:

https://www.energystar.gov/about/federal-tax-credits/water-heaters-natural-gas-oil-propane-tax-credit